M6 conference
6-7 November 2023
Harvard Club of New York
The Future of Forecasting and the M6 Conference ran on the 6th and 7th of November, 2023 at the Harvard Club of New York, in New York City, USA. This very well attended conference covered many critical and emerging aspects of forecasting, including the role of AI and large language models, forecasting for the new era and the changing role of the forecaster, how to best measure the performance of your forecasts, and the value of the results from forecasting competitions in practice. In particular, the findings of the M6 financial forecasting competition were presented during the Conference.
The M6 Forecasting Competition took place from February 2022 to February 2023, which brought together a diverse range of participants from around the globe to forecast financial (stock and ETF) prices and explore the relationship between forecast accuracy and investment returns.
An amazing number of around 100,000 submissions from more than 50 countries were recorded during the yearlong competition, providing a valuable platform for forecasting experts, researchers, and practitioners to showcase their skills, exchange knowledge and techniques, contribute to the advancement of the field and compete for the 300,000USD in prize money generously provided by the M6 sponsors.
The M6 competition’s success highlights the critical role of accurate forecasting and prediction in our rapidly changing world, and its significance has been recognized by industry leaders such who also served as sponsors and co-organizers as Google, Meta, J.P. Morgan, International Institute of Forecasters, Kinaxis, Intech, causaLens, SaS, ForecastPro, Erasmus School of Economics, Forecasting and Strategic Unit of Athens Greece, INSEAD, MOFC and the University of Nicosia
Professor Spyros Makridakis and the other organizers of the M6 competition elaborated on the winning methods, and their practical implications. The conference program also included talks from distinguished speakers from the major software/technology companies, as well as known academics from top-level universities. It featured presentations of the three most accurate methods of the M6 Competition by the developers themselves also discussed how their methods could be implemented by others.
Many of the 63, M6 Competition winners attended the conference, some presented their winning methods and those present were awarded their prizes during the award ceremony.
During the award ceremony, Professor Makridakis was honored for his immerse contribution to the world of forecasting. Commemorative speeches were given by Antonis Polemitis, the CEO of the University of Nicosia; Anil Gaba from INSEAD; Chris Fry from Google and Michael Gilliland, Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Applied Forecasting.
Finally, the program included two panel discussions that focused on the organizational aspects of forecasting, the future of forecasting and the upcoming M7 Competition.
M6 Competition winners & Prizes
| Period | Id | Prize | Competition | Amount | Last Name | First Name | Affiliation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 1 | 1 | Duathlon | $ 32,000 | Filip | Staněk | CERGE-EI |
| Global | 2 | 2 | Duathlon | $ 16,000 | Pérez Michaus | Miguel | – |
| Global | 3 | 3 | Duathlon | $ 8,000 | Peters | Kyle | Georgia Institute of Technology |
| Global | 4 | 4 | Duathlon | $ 4,000 | Ai | Hongfeng | – |
| Global | 5 | 5 | Duathlon | $ 2,000 | Vilar | Jose | Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea |
| Q1 | 6 | 1 | Duathlon | $ 12,000 | Pellegrino | Filippo | London School of Economics |
| Q1 | 7 | 2 | Duathlon | $ 6,000 | Gorelli | Marco | Gousto |
| Q1 | 8 | 3 | Duathlon | $ 3,000 | Vilar | Jose | Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea |
| Q2 | 9 | 1 | Duathlon | $ 12,000 | Andrey | Vasnev | University of Sydney |
| Q2 | 10 | 2 | Duathlon | $ 6,000 | Samartzis | Panagiotis | University of Piraeus |
| Q2 | 11 | 3 | Duathlon | $ 3,000 | Lucas | Morin | – |
| Q3 | 12 | 1 | Duathlon | $ 12,000 | Pérez Michaus | Miguel | – |
| Q3 | 13 | 2 | Duathlon | $ 6,000 | Gupta | Akshay | Oracle |
| Q3 | 14 | 3 | Duathlon | $ 3,000 | Ahn Lyu Kang Kim Kim Seo Yang Choe | Wonbin Juhyun Dongwan Jung-Hee Minjae Jun Jim Hyeokjun | LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research |
| Q4 | 15 | 1 | Duathlon | $ 12,000 | Khani | Morteza | Iqast |
| Q4 | 16 | 2 | Duathlon | $ 6,000 | Chennuru | Vineeth | Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham |
| Q4 | 17 | 3 | Duathlon | $ 3,000 | Harmsen | Alexander | Global Predictions Inc |
| Global | 18 | 1 | Forecasts | $ 16,000 | Weitzenfeld | Dan | JP Morgan |
| Global | 19 | 2 | Forecasts | $ 8,000 | Pérez Michaus | Miguel | – |
| Global | 20 | 3 | Forecasts | $ 4,000 | Radlwimmer | Sebastian | REWE International AG |
| Global | 21 | 4 | Forecasts | $ 2,000 | Filip | Staněk | CERGE-EI |
| Global | 22 | 5 | Forecasts | $ 1,000 | de Vilmarest Werge | Joseph Nicklas | Sorbonne Université Sorbonne Université |
| Q1 | 23 | 1 | Forecasts | $ 6,000 | Vilar | Jose | Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea |
| Q1 | 24 | 2 | Forecasts | $ 3,000 | Pérez Michaus | Miguel | – |
| Q1 | 25 | 3 | Forecasts | $ 1,500 | de Vilmarest Werge | Joseph Nicklas | Sorbonne Université Sorbonne Université |
| Q2 | 26 | 1 | Forecasts | $ 6,000 | Lluch | Jaime | – |
| Q2 | 27 | 2 | Forecasts | $ 3,000 | Nogales | Javier | Universidad Carlos III de Madrid |
| Q2 | 28 | 3 | Forecasts | $ 1,500 | Andrey Pablo Montero Rafael Ziqi | Vasnev Manso Montano Wan | University of Sydney |
| Q3 | 29 | 1 | Forecasts | $ 6,000 | Jha Jha Anand | Sourabh Mayank Thakur Raj | – – – |
| Q3 | 30 | 2 | Forecasts | $ 3,000 | Baz Tellez | Guillermo | – |
| Q3 | 31 | 3 | Forecasts | $ 1,500 | YAVUZ | Ä°DÄ°L | Dokuz Eylül University |
| Q4 | 32 | 1 | Forecasts | $ 6,000 | Shrish | Shrish | – |
| Q4 | 33 | 2 | Forecasts | $ 3,000 | Bandara Godahewa Hewamalage | Kasun Rakshitha Hansika | Monash University Monash University Monash University |
| Q4 | 34 | 3 | Forecasts | $ 1,500 | Filip | Staněk | CERGE-EI |
| Global | 35 | 1 | Decisions | $ 16,000 | Catlin | Colin | Nousot |
| Global | 36 | 2 | Decisions | $ 8,000 | Selamlar Yapar | Hanife Taylan Güçkan | Dokuz Eylül University Dokuz Eylül University |
| Global | 37 | 3 | Decisions | $ 4,000 | Hajou Fighiera Hervault Taquet François Willot | Rima Vincent Damien Vianney Culière Alexandre | Quantmetry Quantmetry Quantmetry Quantmetry Quantmetry Quantmetry |
| Global | 38 | 4 | Decisions | $ 2,000 | Ahn Lyu Kang Kim Kim Seo Yang Choe | Wonbin Juhyun Dongwan Jung-Hee Minjae Jun Jim Hyeokjun | LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research |
| Global | 39 | 5 | Decisions | $ 1,000 | Osaka Chen Prasai | Haruki Dale Narayan | University of Sydney University of Sydney University of Sydney |
| Period | Id | Prize | Competition | Amount | Last Name | First Name | Affiliation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 40 | 1 | Decisions | $ 6,000 | Catlin | Colin | Nousot |
| Q1 | 41 | 2 | Decisions | $ 3,000 | Selamlar Yapar | Hanife Taylan Güçkan | Dokuz Eylül University Dokuz Eylül University |
| Q1 | 42 | 3 | Decisions | $ 1,500 | Osaka Chen Prasai | Haruki Dale Narayan | University of Sydney University of Sydney University of Sydney |
| Q2 | 43 | 1 | Decisions | $ 6,000 | Samartzis | Panagiotis | University of Piraeus |
| Q2 | 44 | 2 | Decisions | $ 3,000 | Mashlakov | Aleksei | – |
| Q2 | 45 | 3 | Decisions | $ 1,500 | Selamlar Yapar | Hanife Taylan Güçkan | Dokuz Eylül University Dokuz Eylül University |
| Q3 | 46 | 1 | Decisions | $ 6,000 | Ahn Lyu Kang Kim Kim Seo Yang Choe | Wonbin Juhyun Dongwan Jung-Hee Minjae Jun Jim Hyeokjun | LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research LG AI Research |
| Q3 | 47 | 2 | Decisions | $ 3,000 | Aggarwal | Ankit | – |
| Q3 | 48 | 3 | Decisions | $ 1,500 | Gupta | Akshay | Oracle |
| Q4 | 49 | 1 | Decisions | $ 6,000 | Chennuru | Vineeth | Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham |
| Q4 | 50 | 2 | Decisions | $ 3,000 | Ghiasi-Shirazi | Sayed kamaledin | Polaris Corporation |
| Q4 | 51 | 3 | Decisions | $ 1,500 | Viole | Fred | – |
| Q1 | 52 | 1 | Student | $ 1,000 | Pellegrino | Filippo | London School of Economics |
| Q1 | 53 | 2 | Student | $ 600 | Sel | Burakhan | Technische Universität München |
| Q1 | 54 | 3 | Student | $ 400 | Peters | Kyle | Georgia Institute of Technology |
| Q2 | 55 | 1 | Student | $ 1,000 | UYSAL Akseki Akseki§ Tıver | ENES MALIK Sinem Mert ali Ecem | Dokuz Eylül University Dokuz Eylül University Dokuz Eylül University Dokuz Eylül University |
| Q2 | 56 | 2 | Student | $ 600 | Yapar | Baran | – |
| Q2 | 57 | 3 | Student | $ 400 | Peters | Kyle | Georgia Institute of Technology |
| Q3 | 58 | 1 | Student | $ 1,000 | Yapar | Baran | – |
| Q3 | 59 | 2 | Student | $ 600 | DoÄŸanay EROL | Ece Mustafa | Dokuz Eylül University Dokuz Eylül University |
| Q3 | 60 | 3 | Student | $ 400 | Filip | Staněk | CERGE-EI |
| Q4 | 61 | 1 | Student | $ 1,000 | Filip | Staněk | CERGE-EI |
| Q4 | 62 | 2 | Student | $ 600 | Peters | Kyle | Georgia Institute of Technology |
| Q4 | 63 | 3 | Student | $ 400 | Papaioannou | Stavros | – |
–
M6 Conference Organizers
M6 competition sponsors
Platinum Sponsor
Gold Sponsor
Diamond Sponsor
THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING & THE M6 CONFERENCE Agenda
| 8:00am – 8:30am | Breakfast |
| 8:30am – 9:00am | Welcome / Opening Remarks Maria Michailidis Director of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center Antonis Polemitis CEO, University of Nicosia Mike Gilliland Editor-in-Chief of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Spyros Makridakis Founder of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center |
| 9:00am – 10:30am | The Emergence of AI and the Changing Role of Forecaster Talk 1: Spyros Makridakis (University of Nicosia) Fotios Petropoulos (University of Bath & University of Nicosia) Talk 2: Nitzi Roehl (SAS) Talk 3: Zeynep Erkin Baz (Meta) |
| 10:30am – 11:00am | Coffee Break |
| 11:00am – 12:30pm | Applying AI to Forecasting Talk 1: Pablo Montero-Manso (University of Sydney) Talk 2: Jeff Baker (Libra SCM) Talk 3: Ruben Crevits (OMP) |
| 12:30pm – 13:30pm | Lunch Break |
| 13:30pm – 15:00pm | The Results of the M6 Competition Talk 1: Spyros Makridakis (University of Nicosia) Anil Gaba (INSEAD) Talk 2: Evangelos Spiliotis (National Technical University of Athens) Fotios Petropoulos (University of Bath & University of Nicosia) Talk 3: Norman Swanson (Rutgers Economics) Ross Hollyman (Exeter University) |
| 15:00pm – 15:15pm | Coffee Break |
| 15:15pm – 16:30pm | The Organizational Dynamics, Politics, and Limits of Forecasting Chair: Elaine Deschamps (State of Washington) Panelist 1: Paul Goodwin (University of Bath) Panelist 2: Mark Chockalingam (Valtitude) Panelist 3: Jim Hoover (UF Warrington College of Business) |
| 8:00am – 8:50am | Breakfast |
| 8:50am – 9:00am | Welcome Speech Maria Michailidis Director of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center |
| 9:00am – 10:30am | Beyond Forecasting Performance (dedicated to the memory of John Boylan) Talk 1: Johann Robette (Vekia) Talk 2: Nada Sanders (Northeastern University) Talk 3: Robert Boute (Vlerick Business School) |
| 10:30am – 11:00pm | Coffee Break |
| 11:00pm – 12:30pm | The Value of M6 Competition in Practice Talk 1: Malvina Marchese (Bayes Business School) Talk 2: Naftali Cohen (Columbia University) Talk 3: Chris Fry (Google) |
| 12:30pm – 13:30pm | Lunch Break & Award Ceremony |
| 13:30pm – 15:00pm | The Winning Approaches of the M6 Competition Talk 1: Filip Staněk – The winning method of the duathlon challenge Talk 2: Daniel Weitzenfeld – The winning method of the forecasting challenge Talk 3: Colin Catlin – The winning method of the investment challenge |
| 15:00pm – 15:30pm | Coffee Break |
| 15:30pm – 17:00pm | The Future of Forecasting Chair: Yael Grushka-Cockayne (Darden Business School, UVA) Panelist 1: Joseph K. McConnell (McConnell Chase Software Works) Panelist 2: Jonathon Karelse (NorthFind Management) Panelist 3: Nada Sanders (Northeastern University) |
| 17:00pm – 17:10pm | Closing Remarks Mike Gilliland Editor-in-Chief of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Spyros Makridakis Founder of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center, M7 Competition |
Day 1 PRESENTATIONS
- S. Makridakis – F. Petropoulos
- Spyros Makridakis
- Fotios Petropoulos
- Nitzi Roehl
- Pablo Montero
- Jeff Baker
- Ruben Crevits
- Anil Gaba
- Norman Swanson
- Ross Hollyman
- Jim Hoover – Elaine Deschamps
- Mike Gilliland
Day 2 PRESENTATIONS
- Johan Robette
- Nada Sanders
- Robert Boute
- Malvina Marchese
- Naftali Cohen
- Chris Fry
- Filip Stanek
- Daniel Weitzenfeld
- Colin Catlin
